Construction market trends

United States

X ValuesPermits (LHS, SAAR Millions)Output (RHS, SAAR USD billions)
Jan-191316528328
Feb-191305523569
Mar-191327525424
Apr-191330530800
May-191338532148
Jun-191273538372
Jul-191366543830
Aug-191471552508
Sep-191437555879
Oct-191503556693
Nov-191510566916
Dec-191457572387
Jan-201536589103
Feb-201438592960
Mar-201356588060
Apr-201066562339
May-201216539555
Jun-201258553721
Jul-201483575451
Aug-201476615396
Sep-201545620941
Oct-201544650484
Nov-201635670051
Dec-201704691000

Divergence along residential vs non-residential lines continues with the former seeing strong growth while the latter remains pressured.

Private residential construction jumped 20% y-o-y in December and following months of strong growth; building permits increased 17% y-o-y. The decline in private non-residential construction continued for the ninth straight month in December and by -10% y-o-y. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) points to weak activity at least until the first half of 2021, with the index standing at 42.6 in December (< 50 = contraction)

China

X ValuesFloor space started
Jan-1917.91
Feb-1913.08
Mar-1910.69
Apr-1913.08
May-1911.15
Jun-199.12
Jul-196.61
Aug-196.95
Sep-196.05
Oct-1911.01
Nov-198.02
Dec-198.26
Jan-20-6.58
Feb-20-17.65
Mar-20-30.64
Apr-20-18.42
May-20-8.57
Jun-203.82
Jul-207.59
Aug-207.70
Sep-203.91
Oct-201.28
Nov-201.84
Dec-204.71

Chinese economy records positive growth in 2020; construction activity to support economy during H1 2021.

Newly started y-o-y growth in Q4 2020 floor space up 4.7% in December (Q3 2020: 3.9% ). Floor space sold up 12.7% during the same period (Q3 2020: 9.8%). Raiway and civil aviation investment saw declines in output in 2020 while road transportation investment up 1.8%.

Europe

X ValuesPMI (LHS)Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-1950.60.38
Feb-1952.66.14
Mar-1952.26.32
Apr-1952.13.11
May-1950.62.34
Jun-1950.82.14
Jul-1950.61.86
Aug-1949.11.03
Sep-1950.50.28
Oct-1950.70.37
Nov-1950.61.11
Dec-1951.3-2.45
Jan-2051.94.32
Feb-2052.5-0.18
Mar-2033.5-15.57
Apr-2015.1-29.59
May-2039.5-9.23
Jun-2048.3-4.55
Jul-2048.9-4.03
Aug-2047.80.74
Sep-2047.5-2.84
Oct-2044.9-1.94
Nov-2045.6-1.28
Dec-2045.5

Eurozone construction activity weak and particularly in the private nonresidential sector. Leading indicators point to continued weak conditions into H1 2021.

The contraction in Eurozone construction activity continued in November and by -1% y-o-y. Prospects into H1 2021 weak with the PMI standing at 45.5 in December (<50 = contraction)

India

X ValuesFloor space started
Jan-191.44
Feb-191.79
Mar-194.98
Apr-194.30
May-192.91
Jun-190.18
Jul-192.00
Aug-19-0.71
Sep-19-5.72
Oct-19-5.41
Nov-190.25
Dec-192.15
Jan-201.36
Feb-205.10
Mar-20-8.96
Apr-20-42.25
May-20-21.14
Jun-20-12.09
Jul-20-7.95
Aug-20-7.48
Sep-20-0.34
Oct-20-2.11
Nov-20-1.92
Dec-20-1.70

Activity generally weak but pickup foreseen beginning H2 2021

The weighted average of eight core industries output declined -1.3% y-o-y in December and for the third straight month. The decline in the core index was due to falls in crude output, natural gas, refinery products, steel and cement.


 

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