Construction market trends

United States

X Values ABI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 55.3 -1.30
Feb-19 50.3 -2.35
Mar-19 47.8 1.53
Apr-19 50.5 2.02
May-19 50.2 3.56
Jun-19 49.1 8.13
Jul-19 50.1 10.15
Aug-19 47.2 11.03
Sep-19 49.7 11.73
Oct-19 52 13.14
Nov-19 51.9 17.35
Dec-19 52.1 13.42
Jan-20 52.2 13.69
Feb-20 53.4 10.88
Mar-20 33.3 7.26
Apr-20 29.5 1.20
May-20 32 -2.45
Jun-20 40 -3.95
Jul-20 40 -6.77
Aug-20 40 -9.80
Sep-20 47 -11.22
Oct-20 47.5 -12.22
Nov-20 46.3 -15.07
Dec-20 42.3 -14.97
Jan-21 44.9 -12.06
Feb-21 53.3 -11.93
Mar-21 55.6 -10.90
Apr-21 57.9 -6.55
May-21 58.5 -5.76

Confidence in the private non residential sector improving. Decline in residential permits from January 2021 peak leading to slowdown in residential output.

Private residential output flat m-o-m (29% y-o-y) in May and building permits down -3% m-o-m (35% y-o-y). Private non-residential output down -1% m-o-m with y-o-y decline narrowing to -5.8%. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) expanded for the fourth straight month and to 58.5 (> 50, expansion).

China

X Values Series1
Jan-19 17.91
Feb-19 13.08
Mar-19 10.69
Apr-19 13.08
May-19 11.15
Jun-19 9.12
Jul-19 6.61
Aug-19 6.95
Sep-19 6.05
Oct-19 11.01
Nov-19 8.02
Dec-19 8.26
Jan-20 -6.58
Feb-20 -17.65
Mar-20 -30.64
Apr-20 -18.42
May-20 -8.57
Jun-20 3.82
Jul-20 7.59
Aug-20 7.70
Sep-20 3.91
Oct-20 1.28
Nov-20 1.84
Dec-20 4.71
Jan-21 11.84
Feb-21 24.91
Mar-21 33.83
Apr-21 30.68
May-21 58.50

Chinese real estate market bounced back in May.

The 3 month moving average y-o-y growth in newly started floor space jumped by 60% in May and real estate floor space sold was up 110%.

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 0.94
Feb-19 52.6 6.51
Mar-19 52.2 6.33
Apr-19 52.1 3.28
May-19 50.6 2.43
Jun-19 50.8 1.86
Jul-19 50.6 1.77
Aug-19 49.1 0.93
Sep-19 50.5 0.46
Oct-19 50.7 0.56
Nov-19 50.6 1.11
Dec-19 51.3 -2.53
Jan-20 51.9 4.00
Feb-20 52.5 -0.27
Mar-20 33.5 -15.52
Apr-20 15.1 -29.88
May-20 39.5 -9.38
Jun-20 48.3 -4.11
Jul-20 48.9 -3.38
Aug-20 47.8 0.65
Sep-20 47.5 -2.83
Oct-20 44.9 -2.12
Nov-20 45.6 -0.37
Dec-20 45.5 -0.28
Jan-21 44.1 -2.86
Feb-21 45 -4.23
Mar-21 50.1 18.27
Apr-21 50.1 40.28
May-21

Construction improves from COVID lows with housebuilding driving the expansion.

Eurozone construction down -2% m-o-m in April (40% y-o-y). The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI remained at 50.3 in June and expanded for the fourth straight month (> 50, expansion).

India

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 107.98
Feb-19 100.58
Mar-19 116.09
Apr-19 103.98
May-19 108.91
Jun-19 105.30
Jul-19 105.53
Aug-19 102.22
Sep-19 95.93
Oct-19 102.07
Nov-19 103.32
Dec-19 106.57
Jan-20 109.45
Feb-20 105.71
Mar-20 105.70
Apr-20 57.80
May-20 85.88
Jun-20 92.57
Jul-20 97.14
Aug-20 94.57
Sep-20 95.61
Oct-20 100.24
Nov-20 101.56
Dec-20 106.26
Jan-21 110.18
Feb-21 101.84
Mar-21 116.85
Apr-21 103.22
May-21 103.22

Core sectors output sees strong growth due to weak base of comparison but underlying activity generally weak

The weighted average of eight core industries output increased by 20% y-o-y but declined -4% m-o-m.


 

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