Construction market trends

United States

X Values ABI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 55.3 -0.16
Feb-19 50.3 -2.19
Mar-19 47.8 1.95
Apr-19 50.5 0.77
May-19 50.2 1.82
Jun-19 49.1 4.43
Jul-19 50.1 5.52
Aug-19 47.2 5.99
Sep-19 49.7 6.77
Oct-19 52 8.72
Nov-19 51.9 11.95
Dec-19 52.1 7.98
Jan-20 52.2 5.81
Feb-20 53.4 4.89
Mar-20 33.3 1.15
Apr-20 29.5 -0.55
May-20 32 -2.14
Jun-20 40 -1.74
Jul-20 40 -2.83
Aug-20 40 -5.16
Sep-20 47 -6.76
Oct-20 47.5 -8.13
Nov-20 46.3 -9.49
Dec-20 42.3 -9.08
Jan-21 44.9 -9.18
Feb-21 53.3 -8.44
Mar-21 55.6 -7.08
Apr-21 57.9 -4.82

Residential sector strong but building material shortages pose risks; private non-residential output continues to stabilise.

Residential building permits up 60% y-o-y in April; private residential output up 30% y-o-y, but single-family housing starts down -13% m-o-m due to construction material shortages. Private non-residential construction down by -0.5% m-o-m (-5% y-o-y). The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) expanded for the third month in April to 57.9 (> 50, expansion).

China

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 17.91
Feb-19 13.08
Mar-19 10.69
Apr-19 13.08
May-19 11.15
Jun-19 9.12
Jul-19 6.61
Aug-19 6.95
Sep-19 6.05
Oct-19 11.01
Nov-19 8.02
Dec-19 8.26
Jan-20 -6.58
Feb-20 -17.65
Mar-20 -30.64
Apr-20 -18.42
May-20 -8.57
Jun-20 3.82
Jul-20 7.59
Aug-20 7.70
Sep-20 3.91
Oct-20 1.28
Nov-20 1.84
Dec-20 4.71
Jan-21 11.84
Feb-21 24.91
Mar-21 33.83
Apr-21 12.85

Chinese real estate generally buoyant but indications of slowdown emerge in April.

Newly started floor space up 13% in April on a y-o-y, 3 month moving average basis. Floor space sold up 48% during the same period.

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 0.85
Feb-19 52.6 6.51
Mar-19 52.2 6.33
Apr-19 52.1 3.20
May-19 50.6 2.43
Jun-19 50.8 1.95
Jul-19 50.6 1.77
Aug-19 49.1 0.93
Sep-19 50.5 0.37
Oct-19 50.7 0.56
Nov-19 50.6 1.11
Dec-19 51.3 -2.71
Jan-20 51.9 4.00
Feb-20 52.5 -0.18
Mar-20 33.5 -15.42
Apr-20 15.1 -29.69
May-20 39.5 -9.29
Jun-20 48.3 -4.19
Jul-20 48.9 -3.38
Aug-20 47.8 0.65
Sep-20 47.5 -2.83
Oct-20 44.9 -2.21
Nov-20 45.6 -0.37
Dec-20 45.5 -0.19
Jan-21 44.1 -2.86
Feb-21 45 -4.32
Mar-21 50.1 16.42
Apr-21 50.1

Leading Indicators point towards stabilising activity in construction.

Eurozone construction up 2.7% m-o-m in March and 16% y-o-y due to the weak base in March 2020. The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI remained unchanged at 50.1 in April (> 50, expansion) and indicating stabilising activity.

India

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 107.98
Feb-19 100.58
Mar-19 116.09
Apr-19 103.98
May-19 108.91
Jun-19 105.30
Jul-19 105.53
Aug-19 102.22
Sep-19 95.93
Oct-19 102.07
Nov-19 103.32
Dec-19 106.57
Jan-20 109.45
Feb-20 105.71
Mar-20 105.70
Apr-20 57.80
May-20 85.88
Jun-20 92.57
Jul-20 97.14
Aug-20 94.57
Sep-20 95.61
Oct-20 100.24
Nov-20 101.56
Dec-20 106.26
Jan-21 110.18
Feb-21 101.36
Mar-21 116.85
Apr-21 100.44

Core sectors output saw strong growth in April due to weak base but demand conditions remain generally weak.

Growth in eight core sectors up by 56% y-o-y in April and mostly due to weak base of activity during April 2020.


 

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