Construction market trends

United States

X Values Permits (LHS, SAAR Millions) Output (RHS, SAAR USD billions)
Jan-19 1295 519565
Feb-19 1304 519977
Mar-19 1316 521651
Apr-19 1337 527291
May-19 1337 532890
Jun-19 1276 541719
Jul-19 1369 552029
Aug-19 1479 556709
Sep-19 1439 559629
Oct-19 1509 561262
Nov-19 1509 572412
Dec-19 1453 581530
Jan-20 1550 591497
Feb-20 1478 609742
Mar-20 1382 617567
Apr-20 1094 597672
May-20 1246 584171
Jun-20 1296 590445
Jul-20 1542 608617
Aug-20 1522 632725
Sep-20 1589 648272
Oct-20 1595 664062
Nov-20 1696 684497
Dec-20 1758 704835
Jan-21 1883 731248
Feb-21 1726 729266
Mar-21 1755 745016
Apr-21 1733 752819
May-21 1683 762852
Jun-21 1594 780726
Jul-21 1630 775917
Aug-21 1721 780511
Sep-21 1586 791074
Oct-21 1653 795324
Nov-21 1717 801584
Dec-21 1885 818957
Jan-22 1895 829377

Residential and non-residential output strong but bottlenecks and rising mortgage rates could slow demand.

Private residential output up 1.3% m-o-m (13.4% y-o-y); building permits up 0.5% m-o-m (0.6% y-o-y) to 1.899 million units & highest since 2006.

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 0.85
Feb-19 52.6 6.60
Mar-19 52.2 6.33
Apr-19 52.1 3.19
May-19 50.6 2.33
Jun-19 50.8 1.95
Jul-19 50.6 1.86
Aug-19 49.1 1.02
Sep-19 50.5 0.46
Oct-19 50.7 0.56
Nov-19 50.6 1.20
Dec-19 51.3 -2.61
Jan-20 51.9 4.10
Feb-20 52.5 -0.36
Mar-20 33.5 -15.60
Apr-20 15.1 -29.85
May-20 39.5 -9.75
Jun-20 48.3 -4.19
Jul-20 48.9 -3.47
Aug-20 47.8 0.64
Sep-20 47.5 -2.83
Oct-20 44.9 -2.12
Nov-20 45.6 -0.37
Dec-20 45.5 -0.09
Jan-21 44.1 -2.77
Feb-21 45 -3.96
Mar-21 50.1 18.16
Apr-21 50.1 42.93
May-21 50.3 11.62
Jun-21 50.3 4.19
Jul-21 49.8 2.74
Aug-21 49.5 -1.56
Sep-21 50 1.97
Oct-21 51.2 3.01
Nov-21 53.3 0.37
Dec-21 52.9 -2.78
Jan-22 56.6
44593 56.3

Improvement in construction driven by homebuilding & civil engineering but input cost inflation main risk to outlook.

Eurozone construction down -4% m-o-m (-2.8% y-o-y). The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI fell slightly to 56.3 in February from 56.6 in January (> 50, expansion).

United States

X Values ABI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 55.3 -1.30
Feb-19 50.3 -2.35
Mar-19 47.8 1.53
Apr-19 50.5 2.02
May-19 50.2 3.56
Jun-19 49.1 8.13
Jul-19 50.1 10.15
Aug-19 47.2 11.03
Sep-19 49.7 11.7
Oct-19 52 13.14
Nov-19 51.9 17.35
Dec-19 52.1 13.42
Jan-20 52.2 13.69
Feb-20 53.4 10.88
Mar-20 33.3 7.26
Apr-20 29.5 1.20
May-20 32 -2.45
Jun-20 40 -3.95
Jul-20 40 -6.77
Aug-20 40 -9.80
Sep-20 47 -11.22
Oct-20 47.5 -12.22
Nov-20 46.3 -15.07
Dec-20 42.3 -14.97
Jan-21 44.9 -12.06
Feb-21 53.3 -11.93
Mar-21 55.6 -10.90
Apr-21 57.9 -6.46
May-21 58.5 -3.96
Jun-21 57.1 -4.25
Jul-21 54.6 -2.44
Aug-21 55.6 0.64
Sep-21 56.6 3.23
Oct-21 54.3 4.91
Nov-21 51 9.38
Dec-21 52 10.41
Jan-22 51 7.29

Private non-residential output up 1.8% m-o-m (7.3% y-o-y). Architecture Billings Index (ABI) fell to 51 in January from 52 in December (>50, expansion).

India

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 1.44
Feb-19 1.79
Mar-19 4.98
Apr-19 4.30
May-19 2.91
Jun-19 0.18
Jul-19 2.00
Aug-19 -0.71
Sep-19 -5.72
Oct-19 -5.41
Nov-19 0.25
Dec-19 2.15
Jan-20 1.36
Feb-20 5.10
Mar-20 -8.96
Apr-20 -42.25
May-20 -21.14
Jun-20 -12.09
Jul-20 -7.95
Aug-20 -7.48
Sep-20 -0.34
Oct-20 -2.11
Nov-20 -1.92
Dec-20 -1.70

Core sector growth slowed but remains stable.

Weighted average of eight core industries output up 3.7% y-o-y in January; production of steel up 2.8%; cement up 13.6% y-o-y.


 

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