Construction market trends

United States

X Values ABI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 55.3 -0.16
Feb-19 50.3 -2.19
Mar-19 47.8 1.95
Apr-19 50.5 0.77
May-19 50.2 1.82
Jun-19 49.1 4.43
Jul-19 50.1 5.52
Aug-19 47.2 5.99
Sep-19 49.7 6.77
Oct-19 52 8.72
Nov-19 51.9 11.95
Dec-19 52.1 7.98
Jan-20 52.2 5.81
Feb-20 53.4 4.89
Mar-20 33.3 1.15
Apr-20 29.5 -0.55
May-20 32 -2.14
Jun-20 40 -1.74
Jul-20 40 -2.83
Aug-20 40 -5.16
Sep-20 47 -6.76
Oct-20 47.5 -8.13
Nov-20 46.3 -9.49
Dec-20 42.3 -9.08
Jan-21 44.9 -9.18
Feb-21 53.3 -9.68
Mar-21 55.6 -9.07

Leading indicators point to stabilisation in private non-residential output in coming months.

Private residential output up 1.7% m-o-m in March (23%, y-o-y); issued building permits up 2.3% m-o-m (30%, y-o-y). Private non-residential output down -10% y-o-y in March. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) expanded for the second straight month to 55.6 in March (>50, expansion) and reaching the highest level since January 2019.

China

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 17.91
Feb-19 13.08
Mar-19 10.69
Apr-19 13.08
May-19 11.15
Jun-19 9.12
Jul-19 6.61
Aug-19 6.95
Sep-19 6.05
Oct-19 11.01
Nov-19 8.02
Dec-19 8.26
Jan-20 -6.58
Feb-20 -17.65
Mar-20 -30.64
Apr-20 -18.42
May-20 -8.57
Jun-20 3.82
Jul-20 7.59
Aug-20 7.70
Sep-20 3.91
Oct-20 1.28
Nov-20 1.84
Dec-20 4.71
Jan-21 11.84
Feb-21 24.92
Mar-21 33.82

Chinese real estate buoyant but authorities following credit restrictions to slow growth.

New floor space started up 34% y-o-y and floor space sold up 70% in Q1 (helped by weaker base in Q1 20)

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.60 0.94
Feb-19 52.60 6.51
Mar-19 52.20 6.51
Apr-19 52.10 3.20
May-19 50.60 2.52
Jun-19 50.80 1.86
Jul-19 50.60 1.96
Aug-19 49.10 0.84
Sep-19 50.50 0.37
Oct-19 50.70 0.37
Nov-19 50.60 0.92
Dec-19 51.30 -2.44
Jan-20 51.90 4.29
Feb-20 52.50 0.09
Mar-20 33.50 -15.36
Apr-20 15.10 -29.60
May-20 39.50 -9.37
Jun-20 48.30 -4.19
Jul-20 48.90 -3.47
Aug-20 47.80 0.92
Sep-20 47.50 -2.83
Oct-20 44.90 -1.94
Nov-20 45.60 -0.18
Dec-20 45.50 -0.37
Jan-21 44.10 -3.04
Feb-21 45.00 -4.67
Mar-21 50.10

Construction remains weak but optimism returns in March and for the first time since February 2020.

Eurozone output down -1.6% m-o-m in February (-4.7% y-o-y). The IHS Markit Eurozone construction PMI expanded to 50.1 in March (> 50, expansion) and for the first time since February 2020.

India

X Values Floor space started
Jan-20 1.36
Feb-20 5.10
Mar-20 -8.96
Apr-20 -44.41
May-20 -21.15
Jun-20 -12.09
Jul-20 -7.95
Aug-20 -7.48
Sep-20 -0.34
Oct-20 -1.79
Nov-20 -1.71
Dec-20 -0.29
Jan-21 0.39
Feb-21 -4.11
Mar-21 6.96

Weak base contributes to largest expansion in core activity in 32 months in March but underlying activity generally weak.

The weighted average of eight core industries output up 7% y-o-y in March. Output of steel and cement recorded the highest growth and by 23% and 33% respectively.


 

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Technical trends: The next normal in construction material distribution

The construction industry and its supporting ecosystem have shown unsatisfactory performance in recent years, and external market factors and complex industry dynamics have impeded attempts at change. Over the next decade, however, new technologies and increased product digitization are likely to disrupt parts of the construction ecosystem, transforming the industry as we know it.

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