Construction market trends

United States

X Values ABI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 55.3 -1.49
Feb-19 50.3 -2.60
Mar-19 47.8 1.13
Apr-19 50.5 2.11
May-19 50.2 3.54
Jun-19 49.1 8.10
Jul-19 50.1 10.09
Aug-19 47.2 11.21
Sep-19 49.7 11.92
Oct-19 52 13.26
Nov-19 51.9 17.60
Dec-19 52.1 13.73
Jan-20 52.2 14.15
Feb-20 53.4 12.05
Mar-20 33.3 8.48
Apr-20 29.5 3.25
May-20 32 0.52
Jun-20 40 -0.77
Jul-20 40 -2.97
Aug-20 40 -6.80
Sep-20 47 -7.20
Oct-20 47.5 -7.49
Nov-20 46.3 -9.83
Dec-20 42.3 -8.77
Jan-21 44.9 -7.74
Feb-21 53.3 -8.81
Mar-21 55.6 -5.55
Apr-21 57.9 -2.64
May-21 58.5 -2.67
Jun-21 57.1 -2.39
Jul-21 54.6 -1.02
Aug-21 55.6 0.45
Sep-21 56.6 -0.20
Oct-21 54.3 0.55
Nov-21 51 3.62
Dec-21 52 3.67
Jan-22 51 3.45
Feb-22 51.3 5.73
Mar-22 58 2.89
Apr-22 56.5 3.09
May-22 53.5 4.36
Jun-22 53.2 6.19
Jul-22 51 7.76
Aug-22 53.3 9.51
Sep-22 51.7 11.61
Oct-22 47.7 9.53

Slowdown in construction continues on tighter monetary policy.

Private residential output down -0.3% m-o-m in October (8.6% y-o-y); building permits down -3.3% m-o-m (-11% y-o-y). Private non residential output down -0.8% m-o-m (9.5% y-o-y); Architecture Billings Index (ABI) down to 47.7 in October from 51.7 in September (<50, contraction)

China

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 17.91
Feb-19 13.08
Mar-19 10.69
Apr-19 13.08
May-19 11.15
Jun-19 9.12
Jul-19 6.61
Aug-19 6.95
Sep-19 6.05
Oct-19 11.01
Nov-19 8.02
Dec-19 8.26
Jan-20 -6.58
Feb-20 -17.65
Mar-20 -30.64
Apr-20 -18.42
May-20 -8.57
Jun-20 3.82
Jul-20 7.59
Aug-20 7.70
Sep-20 3.91
Oct-20 1.28
Nov-20 1.84
Dec-20 4.71

China residential property remains under pressure; infrastructure supporting overall sector.

The 3 month moving average y-o-y decline in floor space started reached -45% in September; floor space sold down -22% y-o-y; road trasnsportation infrastructure up 2.5% year to date in September

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 0.38
Feb-19 52.6 6.14
Mar-19 52.2 6.32
Apr-19 52.1 3.11
May-19 50.6 2.34
Jun-19 50.8 2.14
Jul-19 50.6 1.86
Aug-19 49.1 1.03
Sep-19 50.5 0.28
Oct-19 50.7 0.37
Nov-19 50.6 1.11
Dec-19 51.3 -2.45
Jan-20 51.9 4.32
Feb-20 52.5 -0.18
Mar-20 33.5 -15.57
Apr-20 15.1 -29.59
May-20 39.5 -9.23
Jun-20 48.3 -4.55
Jul-20 48.9 -4.03%
Aug-20 47.8 0.74%
Sep-20 47.5 -2.84
Oct-20 44.9 -1.94
Nov-20 45.6 -1.28
Dec-20 45.5

Leading indicators show Eurozone construction struggling as activity and new orders weaken across segments.

Construction down -0.6% m-o-m in August (2.8% y-o-y); Buildings down -0.4% m-o-m (3.1% y-o-y); Civil works down -1.4% m-o-m (0.7% y-o-y). The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI declined for the sixth straight month in October to 44.9 (< 50, contraction).

India

X Values Floor space started
Jan-20 1.36
Feb-20 5.10
Mar-20 -8.96
Apr-20 -44.41
May-20 -21.15
Jun-20 -12.09
Jul-20 -7.95
Aug-20 -7.48
Sep-20 -0.34
Oct-20 -1.79
Nov-20 -1.71
Dec-20 -0.29
Jan-21 0.67
Feb-21 -3.65
Mar-21 12.60
Apr-21 62.60
May-21 16.40
Jun-21 9.40
Jul-21 9.90
Aug-21 12.20
Sep-21 5.40
Oct-21 8.70
Nov-21 3.20
Dec-21 4.10
Jan-22 4.00
Feb-22 5.90
Mar-22 4.80
Apr-22 9.50
May-22 19.30
Jun-22 13.10
Jul-22 4.80
Aug-22 4.10
Sep-22 7.80
Oct-22 0.10

Construction activity picking up.

Weighted average of eight core industries output up 7.9% y-o-y in September; production of steel up 6.7%, cement up 12.1% y-o-y.


 

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