Construction market trends

United States

X ValuesPermits (LHS, SAAR Millions)Output (RHS, SAAR USD billions)
Jan-191.254517390
Feb-191.302516797
Mar-191.291517696
Apr-191.298522630
May-191.338528461
Jun-191.301540442
Jul-191.347552575
Aug-191.528559755
Sep-191.491563783
Oct-191.538567704
Nov-191.522580112
Dec-191.461586250
Jan-201.500598551
Feb-201.440609465
Mar-201.348617132
Apr-201.050595620
May-201.253583199
Jun-201.329589685
Jul-201.526609849
Aug-201.564641103
Sep-201.643662353
Oct-201.622684180
Nov-201.713702717
Dec-201.760725025
Jan-211.866748052
Feb-211.700742853
Mar-211.731757335
Apr-211.714766640
May-211.68779374
Jun-211.644792075
Jul-211.618806484
Aug-211.837813307
Sep-211.636819594
Oct-211.727828907
Nov-211.775852881
Dec-211.948881281
Jan-221.898912687
Feb-221.817931898
Mar-221.877949368
Apr-221.795965838
May-221.708969636
Jun-221.701955943
Jul-221.658929672
Aug-221.586907606
Sep-221.588891657
Oct-221.555877990
Nov-221.402865170
Dec-221.409853718
Jan-231.354856046
Feb-231.482847507
Mar-231.437846865
Apr-231.417824707
May-231.496853896
Jun-231.441860888
Jul-231.443855438
Aug-231.541866550
Sep-231.471872038

Housing starts rebounded in September but high interest rates remain a headwind; business conditions at architectural firms falls to lowest levels since December 2020.

Private residential output up 0.6% m-o-m (-2.2% y-o-y) in September; Building permits down -4.5 m-o-m (-7.4% y-o-y).

Private non-residential output up 0.1% m-o-m (21.3% y-o-y) in September and supported by manufacturing construction but Architectural billings Index declines to 48.4 (<50, contraction).

China

X ValuesFloor space started
Jan-1917.91
Feb-1913.08
Mar-1910.69
Apr-1913.08
May-1911.15
Jun-199.12
Jul-196.61
Aug-196.95
Sep-196.05
Oct-1911.01
Nov-198.02
Dec-198.26
Jan-20-6.58
Feb-20-17.65
Mar-20-30.64
Apr-20-18.42
May-20-8.57
Jun-203.82
Jul-207.59
Aug-207.7
Sep-203.91
Oct-201.28
Nov-201.84
Dec-204.71
Jan-2111.8
Feb-2124.9
Mar-218.3
Apr-21-5
May-21-10.9
Jun-21-6.1
Jul-21-10
Aug-21-13.1
Sep-21-17.4
Oct-21-21.2
Nov-21-22.6
Dec-21-28.6
Jan-22-24.1
Feb-22-23.1
Mar-22-17.5
Apr-22-28.9
May-22-36
Jun-22-43.8
Jul-22-44.1
Aug-22-45.3
Sep-22-45.1
Oct-22-42.1
Nov-22-43.9
Dec-22-43.8
Jan-23-40.4
Feb-23-27.45
Mar-23-19.16
Apr-23-24.24
May-23-28.65
Jun-23-29.59
Jul-23-29.12
Aug-23-27.70
Sep-23-21.50

On the back of policy support, the decline in the residential property sector appears to be easing. Railway and civil aviation continue to support overall construction.

The 3 month moving average y-o-y decline in floor space started was -21.5% in September; floor space sold was down -22.2% y-o-y. Railway investment was up 22% y-o-y, year to date in September.

 

Europe

X ValuesPMI (LHS)Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-1950.65.63
Feb-1952.65.64
Mar-1952.25.65
Apr-1952.12.72
May-1950.61.96
Jun-1950.81.86
Jul-1950.61.77
Aug-1949.11.86
Sep-1950.50.73
Oct-1950.70.93
Nov-1950.61.48
Dec-1951.3-1.53
Jan-2051.95.04
Feb-2052.50
Mar-2033.5-15.61
Apr-2015.1-29.52
May-2039.5-10.24
Jun-2048.3-4.56
Jul-2048.9-2.66
Aug-2047.80
Sep-2047.5-2.28
Oct-2044.9-1.47
Nov-2045.6-0.10
Dec-2045.5-1.1
Jan-2144.1-3.2
Feb-2145-3.89
Mar-2150.119.03
Apr-2150.142.93
May-2150.312.74
Jun-2150.35.45
Jul-2149.83.67
Aug-2149.5-1.00
Sep-21503.35
Oct-2151.23.82
Nov-2153.32.85
Dec-2152.9-0.18
Jan-2256.63.95
Feb-2256.37.55
Mar-2252.83.70
Apr-2250.42.63
May-2249.22.35
Jun-22472.08
Jul-22471.45
Aug-2245.72.03
Sep-2244.20.54
Oct-2245.30.72
Nov-2243.61.16
Dec-2242.6-0.09
Jan-2346.10.44
Feb-2347.61.75
Mar-2345-0.90
Apr-2345.20.20
May-2344.60.40
Jun-2344.2-0.40
Jul-2343.51.40
Aug-2343.40.60

Construction activity in the Eurozone continues to decline with confidence in negative territory.

Eurozone construction down -1.1% m-o-m (0.6% y-o-y) in August; Buildings down -0.8% m-o-m (0.1% y-o-y); Civil works down -2.1% m-o-m (3.9% y-o-y).

The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI fell to 42.7 in October from 43.6 in September (< 50, contraction) and to the lowest levels since December 2022.

India

X ValuesAvg industrial production (y-o-y)
Jan-191.4
Feb-191.8
Mar-195.0
Apr-194.3
May-192.9
Jun-190.2
Jul-192.0
Aug-19-0.7
Sep-19-5.7
Oct-19-5.4
Nov-190.3
Dec-190.9
Jan-201.4
Feb-205.1
Mar-20-9.0
Apr-20-44.4
May-20-21.1
Jun-20-12.1
Jul-20-8.0
Aug-20-7.5
Sep-20-0.3
Oct-20-1.8
Nov-20-1.7
Dec-20-0.3
Jan-210.7
Feb-21-3.7
Mar-2112.6
Apr-2162.6
May-2116.4
Jun-219.4
Jul-2110.0
Aug-2112.2
Sep-215.4
Oct-218.7
Nov-213.2
Dec-214.1
Jan-224.0
Feb-225.9
Mar-224.8
Apr-229.5
May-2219.3
Jun-2213.1
Jul-224.8
Aug-224.2
Sep-228.3
Oct-220.7
Nov-225.7
Dec-228.3
Jan-239.7
Feb-237.4
Mar-234.2
Apr-234.6
May-235.2
Jun-238.3
Jul-238.4
Aug-2312.5
Sep-238.1

The core index of infrastructure industries slowed to a four-month low in September but outlook is positive.

Weighted average of eight core industries output rose by 8.1% y-o-y in September; production of steel up 9.6%, cement up 4.7% y-o-y.


 

Special topic

The forever house – a zero energy home for today and the future enabled by steel by Jonathan Clemens

Globally, the steel and construction industries are actively pursuing CO2 reduction by improving steel production methods and creating energy-efficient building solutions to combat significant carbon emissions. Highlighting the constructsteel Zero Energy Building initiative, which unites steel manufacturers and construction professionals, the focus is on crafting affordable, replicable, and energy-efficient residential models to address the growing global population. Spearheaded by Tata Steel, this initiative aims to construct demonstration homes in India and the UK by early 2024, with plans to share insights for further market development, emphasizing steel’s role in sustainable construction and scalability.

Technical trends

Cementing your lead: The cement industry in the net-zero transition

The cement industry is responsible for approximately 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions, making it one of the largest sectoral carbon footprints in the world. To achieve industry and global targets, the cement industry must actively reduce emissions. However, cement production is difficult to decarbonise due to the direct release of carbon dioxide during its production.

Cement players must act strategically to come out on top in a shifting market, and low-carbon offerings will be key to success. McKinsey’s article lays down four pathways showing particular promise for effectively targeting the carbon-intensive aspects of cement and reducing its use in concrete, namely, lower-carbon clinker facilitated by CCUS, admixtures, innovative cementitious materials, and materials circularity.

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