Construction market trends

United States

X Values ABI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 55.3 -1.54
Feb-19 50.3 -2.64
Mar-19 47.8 1.08
Apr-19 50.5 1.93
May-19 50.2 3.56
Jun-19 49.1 8.14
Jul-19 50.1 10.15
Aug-19 47.2 11.25
Sep-19 49.7 11.98
Oct-19 52 13.42
Nov-19 51.9 17.45
Dec-19 52.1 13.61
Jan-20 52.2 14.07
Feb-20 53.4 11.99
Mar-20 33.3 8.27
Apr-20 29.5 3.30
May-20 32 0.45
Jun-20 40 -0.66
Jul-20 40 -2.89
Aug-20 40 -6.80
Sep-20 47 -7.20
Oct-20 47.5 -7.37
Nov-20 46.3 -9.66
Dec-20 42.3 -8.71
Jan-21 44.9 -6.91
Feb-21 53.3 -7.50
Mar-21 55.6 -3.85
Apr-21 57.9 -1.17
May-21 58.5 -0.88
Jun-21 57.1 -0.57
Jul-21 54.6 0.67
Aug-21 55.6 2.24
Sep-21 56.6 2.81
Oct-21 54.3 3.34
Nov-21 51 7.40
Dec-21 52 7.47
Jan-22 51 7.16
Feb-22 51.3 9.06
Mar-22 58 7.51
Apr-22 56.5 11.1
May-22 53.5 11.5
Jun-22 53.2 10.7
Jul-22 51 12.6
Aug-22 53.3 13.4
Sep-22 51.7 13.5
Oct-22 47.7 12.9
Nov-22 46.6 13.6
Dec-22 48.4 15.5
Jan-23 49.3 20.2
Feb-23 48 20.9
Mar-23 50.4 21.3
Apr-23 48.5 22.2
May-23 51 23.2
Jun-23 50.1 21.8
Jul-23 50 19.8
Aug-23 48.1 19.7
Elevated interest rates contribute to a decline in homebuilding, but the surge in permits buoys well for future residential construction. Manufacturing construction remains solid.
Private residential output is up 0.6% m-o-m (-3.1% y-o-y) in August; Building permits up 6.8% m-o-m (-2.8% y-o-y) in August.
Private non-residential output is up 0.3% m-o-m (19.7% y-o-y) in August; Architecture Billings Index (ABI) falls to 48.1 in August from 50 in July (< 50, contraction).

China

X Values Series1
Jan-19 -1.90
Feb-19 -0.86
Mar-19 -1.40
Apr-19 -0.25
May-19 -1.27
Jun-19 -2.33
Jul-19 -2.30
Aug-19 0.58
Sep-19 2.90
Oct-19 3.11
Nov-19 2.01
Dec-19 0.07
Jan-20 -6.38
Feb-20 -15.49
Mar-20 -28.55
Apr-20 -19.28
May-20 -8.53
Jun-20 3.19
Jul-20 6.34
Aug-20 7.45
Sep-20 9.85
Oct-20 11.68
Nov-20 11.25
Dec-20 12.67
Jan-21 20.60
Feb-21 35.73
Mar-21 36.64
Apr-21 22.52
May-21 10.58
Jun-21 10.97
Jul-21 3.39
Aug-21 -3.96
Sep-21 -12.52
Oct-21 -16.65
Nov-21 -16.07
Dec-21 -16.80
Jan-22 -14.05
Feb-22 -13.16
Mar-22 -13.78
Apr-22 -23.32
May-22 -28.53
Jun-22 -28.03
Jul-22 -25.19
Aug-22 -22.29
Sep-22 -22.06
Oct-22 -20.27
Nov-22 -24.07
Dec-22 -29.91
Jan-23 -27.17
Feb-23 -19.69
Mar-23 -03.54
Apr-23 -05.79
May-23 -10.64
Jun-23 -21.93
Jul-23 -24.69
Aug-23 -25.96

Government introduces stimulus measures to residential property but in a piecemeal fashion to avoid adding to increasing public debt. Infrastructure supports overall construction activity.

The 3-month moving average y-o-y decline in floor space started reached -28% in August; floor space sold was down -26% y-o-y during the same period. Railway investment is up 23% year-to-date, y-o-y in August.

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 5.63
Feb-19 52.6 5.64
Mar-19 52.2 5.65
Apr-19 52.1 2.72
May-19 50.6 1.96
Jun-19 50.8 1.86
Jul-19 50.6 1.77
Aug-19 49.1 1.86
Sep-19 50.5 0.73
Oct-19 50.7 0.93
Nov-19 50.6 1.48
Dec-19 51.3 -1.53
Jan-20 51.9 5.04
Feb-20 52.5 0
Mar-20 33.5 -15.61
Apr-20 15.1 -29.52
May-20 39.5 -10.24
Jun-20 48.3 -4.56
Jul-20 48.9 -2.66
Aug-20 47.8 0
Sep-20 47.5 -2.28
Oct-20 44.9 -1.47
Nov-20 45.6 -0.10
Dec-20 45.5 -1.1
Jan-21 44.1 -3.2
Feb-21 45 -3.89
Mar-21 50.1 19.03
Apr-21 50.1 42.93
May-21 50.3 12.74
Jun-21 50.3 5.45
Jul-21 49.8 3.67
Aug-21 49.5 -1.00
Sep-21 50 3.35
Oct-21 51.2 3.82
Nov-21 53.3 2.85
Dec-21 52.9 -0.18
Jan-22 56.6 3.95
Feb-22 56.3 7.55
Mar-22 52.8 3.70
Apr-22 50.4 2.63
May-22 49.2 2.35
Jun-22 47 2.08
Jul-22 47 1.45
Aug-22 45.7 2.03
Sep-22 44.2 0.54
Oct-22 45.3 0.72
Nov-22 43.6 1.16
Dec-22 42.6 -0.09
Jan-23 46.1 0.44
Feb-23 47.6 1.75
Mar-23 45 -0.87
Apr-23 45.2 0.18
May-23 44.6 0.35
Jun-23 44.2 -0.27
Jul-23 43.5 1.25
Aug-23 43.4
Eurozone construction activity remains weak; construction confidence in negative territory.
Eurozone construction was up 0.8% m-o-m (1.3% y-o-y) in July; Buildings were up 0.9% m-o-m (1% y-o-y); Civil works are down -0.4% m-o-m (3.6% y-o-y).
The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI increased marginally to 43.6 in September from 43.4 in August (< 50, contraction).

India

X Values Avg industrial production (y-o-y)
Jan-19 1.4
Feb-19 1.8
Mar-19 5.0
Apr-19 4.3
May-19 2.9
Jun-19 0.2
Jul-19 2.0
Aug-19 -0.7
Sep-19 -5.7
Oct-19 -5.4
Nov-19 0.3
Dec-19 0.9
Jan-20 1.4
Feb-20 5.1
Mar-20 -9.0
Apr-20 -44.4
May-20 -21.1
Jun-20 -12.1
Jul-20 -8.0
Aug-20 -7.5
Sep-20 -0.3
Oct-20 -1.8
Nov-20 -1.7
Dec-20 -0.3
Jan-21 0.7
Feb-21 -3.7
Mar-21 12.6
Apr-21 62.6
May-21 16.4
Jun-21 9.4
Jul-21 10.0
Aug-21 12.2
Sep-21 5.4
Oct-21 8.7
Nov-21 3.2
Dec-21 4.1
Jan-22 4.0
Feb-22 5.9
Mar-22 4.8
Apr-22 9.5
May-22 19.3
Jun-22 13.1
Jul-22 4.8
Aug-22 4.2
Sep-22 8.3
Oct-22 0.7
Nov-22 5.7
Dec-22 8.3
Jan-23 9.7
Feb-23 7.4
Mar-23 4.2
Apr-23 4.6
May-23 5.2
Jun-23 8.3
Jul-23 8.4
Aug-23 12.1

A favourable monsoon contributes to double-digit expansion in the core index of industrial activity.

Weighted average of eight core industries’ output rose by 12% y-o-y in August; steel production up 11%, and cement up by 19% y-o-y.


 

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Technical trends

Seize the decade: Maximising value through pre-construction excellence

There is a need for a revolution in capital project execution across various sectors, highlighting the challenges in delivering projects on time and within budget. While many project owners have responded to poor delivery by investing in project recovery, some are focusing on pre-construction excellence to improve project outcomes.

Pre-construction excellence involves assessing the potential for cost and schedule improvements in a project and making necessary changes to the project delivery system before final investment decisions are made. This approach can lead to significant improvements in net present value (NPV), risk management, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. As well as supporting on-time, on-budget project delivery during a decade when speed and efficiency really matter, pre-construction excellence may also prove invaluable as stakeholders grapple with new, increasingly complex asset classes.

McKinsey’s article, building on their experience from supporting players in the industry, explains what pre-construction excellence looks like from the perspective of an investor, project owner, and engineering and construction (E&C) firm and offers guidance on how owners and E&Cs can begin to implement pre-construction excellence.

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