Construction market trends

United States

X Values Permits (LHS, SAAR Millions) Output (RHS, SAAR USD billions)
Jan-19 1.295 515899
Feb-19 1.304 516346
Mar-19 1.316 517654
Apr-19 1.337 523932
May-19 1.338 531954
Jun-19 1.276 542612
Jul-19 1.369 554234
Aug-19 1.479 558908
Sep-19 1.439 561924
Oct-19 1.509 564734
Nov-19 1.509 577566
Dec-19 1.453 583160
Jan-20 1.550 596265
Feb-20 1.478 607522
Mar-20 1.382 617990
Apr-20 1.094 599184
May-20 1.246 591253
Jun-20 1.296 593464
Jul-20 1.542 614353
Aug-20 1.522 638430
Sep-20 1.589 657613
Oct-20 1.595 677725
Nov-20 1.696 697825
Dec-20 1.758 719089
Jan-21 1.883 734961
Feb-21 1.726 738572
Mar-21 1.755 757841
Apr-21 1.765 770734
May-21 1.691 788401
Jun-21 1.661 799279
Jul-21 1.655 806484
Aug-21 1.772 811497
Sep-21 1.615 814272
Oct-21 1.698 816908
Nov-21 1.729 824006
Dec-21 1.896 842949
Jan-22 1.841 881907
Feb-22 1.857 903400
Mar-22 1.879 920041
Apr-22 1.823 931545
May-22 1.695 945199
Jun-22 1.696 937710
Jul-22 1.685 927517
Aug-22 1.542 895698
Sep-22 1.564 879682
Oct-22 1.512 872444
Nov-22 1.351 868039

Higher interest rates and fears of recession underpin downward pressure on construction.

Private residential output down -0.5% m-o-m (5.3% y-o-y) in November; building permits down -10.6% m-o-m (-21.9% y-o-y) and to the lowest level since June 2020.

Private non-residential output up 1.7% m-o-m (12.6% y-o-y). Architecture Billings Index (ABI) down to 46.6 in November from 47.7 in October (<50, contraction).

China

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 17.91
Feb-19 13.08
Mar-19 10.69
Apr-19 13.08
May-19 11.15
Jun-19 9.12
Jul-19 6.61
Aug-19 6.95
Sep-19 6.05
Oct-19 11.01
Nov-19 8.02
Dec-19 8.26
Jan-20 -6.58
Feb-20 -17.65
Mar-20 -30.64
Apr-20 -18.42
May-20 -8.57
Jun-20 3.82
Jul-20 7.59
Aug-20 7.70
Sep-20 3.91
Oct-20 1.28
Nov-20 1.84
Dec-20 4.71
Jan-21 11.8
Feb-21 24.9
Mar-21 8.3
Apr-21 -5.0
May-21 -19.9
Jun-21 -6.1
Jul-21 -10.0
Aug-21 -13.1
Sep-21 -17.4
Oct-21 -21.3
Nov-21 -22.6
Dec-21 -28.6
Jan-22 -24.1
Feb-22 -23.1
Mar-22 -17.5
Apr-22 -28.9
May-22 -36.0
Jun-22 -43.8
Jul-22 -44.1
Aug-22 -45.3
Sep-22 -45.1
Oct-22 -42.1
Nov-22 -43.8

Residential sector continues to remain under pressure with some respite expected in 2023.

The 3-month moving average y-o-y growth in floor space fell -44% in November; floor space sold down -24% y-o-y.

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 0.38
Feb-19 52.6 6.14
Mar-19 52.2 6.32
Apr-19 52.1 3.11
May-19 50.6 2.34
Jun-19 50.8 2.14
Jul-19 50.6 1.86
Aug-19 49.1 1.03
Sep-19 50.5 0.28
Oct-19 50.7 0.37
Nov-19 50.6 1.11
Dec-19 51.3 -2.45
Jan-20 51.9 4.32
Feb-20 52.5 -0.18
Mar-20 33.5 -15.57
Apr-20 15.1 -29.59
May-20 39.5 -9.23
Jun-20 48.3 -4.55
Jul-20 48.9 -3.0
Aug-20 47.8 .74
Sep-20 47.5 -2.84
Oct-20 44.9 -1.94
Nov-20 45.6 -1.28
Dec-20 45.5 -0.1
Jan-21 44.1 -3.5
Feb-21 45.0 -5.1
Mar-21 50.1 17.8
Apr-21 50.1 42.2
May-21 50.3 4.1
Jun-21 50.3 4.1
Jul-21 49.8 2.9
Aug-21 49.5 -1.3
Sep-21 50 2.6
Oct-21 51.2 2.8
Nov-21 53.3 0.7
Dec-21 52.9 0.9
Jan-22 56.6 3.6
Feb-22 56.3 7.5
Mar-22 52.8 2.4
Apr-22 50.4 1.8
May-22 49.2 2.0
Jun-22 47 1.2
Jul-22 47 1.2
Aug-22 45.7 2.1
Sep-22 44.2 1.9
Oct-22 45.3 1.2
Nov-22 43.6
Dec-22 42.6

Eurozone construction holds up due to government support schemes but activity to slow.

Eurozone construction up 1.3% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y) in October; Buildings up 1.3% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y); Civil works up 1% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y).

The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI declined to 42.6 in December 2022 from 43.6 in November (< 50, contraction).

India

X Values Avg industrial production (y-o-y)
Jan-19 1.44
Feb-19 1.79
Mar-19 4.98
Apr-19 4.30
May-19 2.91
Jun-19 0.18
Jul-19 2.00
Aug-19 -0.71
Sep-19 -5.72
Oct-19 -5.41
Nov-19 0.25
Dec-19 2.15
Jan-20 1.36
Feb-20 5.10
Mar-20 -8.96
Apr-20 -44.41
May-20 -21.15
Jun-20 -12.09
Jul-20 -7.95
Aug-20 -7.48
Sep-20 -0.34
Oct-20 -1.79
Nov-20 -1.71
Dec-20 -0.29
Jan-21 0.67
Feb-21 -3.65
Mar-21 12.60
Apr-21 62.60
May-21 16.40
Jun-21 9.40
Jul-21 9.90
Aug-21 12.20
Sep-21 5.40
Oct-21 8.70
Nov-21 3.20
Dec-21 4.10
Jan-22 4.00
Feb-22 5.90
Mar-22 4.80
Apr-22 9.50
May-22 19.30
Jun-22 13.10
Jul-22 4.80
Aug-22 4.20
Sep-22 7.80
Oct-22 0.90
Nov-22 5.40

Core sector output improved in November but pickup is not broad based.

Weighted average of eight core industries output up 5.4% y-o-y in November; production of steel up 10.8%, cement up 28.6% y-o-y.


 

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construction sector players

Europe:

Portable buildings specialist Algeco, part of the European modular services and infrastructure giant Modulaire, has acquired steel site storage and accommodation units business Mobile Mini UK Holdings. The move will create the UK’s biggest temporary accommodation solutions business with a fleet of 82,000 units and 38 branches. Link

Europe:

London-based contractor Balfour Beatty announced that it was updating its guidance for the 2022 fiscal year and projected that the company’s performance would be better than previously anticipated. Revenue is expected to be about 5% ahead of 2021’s end-of-year with backlog also anticipated to be 5% higher than 2021’s, mostly due to favorable foreign exchange rates. Link

North America:

Modular housing company Plant Prefab has secured $42m in Series C and other funding to support expansion plans. The latest round was led by the venture capital arm of Brazilian steel producer Gerdau, with additional investments by Asahi Kasei, Brown Angel Group, ICT Capital and Unreasonable Collective. Link