Construction market trends

United States

X ValuesPermits (LHS, SAAR Millions)Output (RHS, SAAR USD billions)
Jan-191.295515899
Feb-191.304516346
Mar-191.316517654
Apr-191.337523932
May-191.338531954
Jun-191.276542612
Jul-191.369554234
Aug-191.479558908
Sep-191.439561924
Oct-191.509564734
Nov-191.509577566
Dec-191.453583160
Jan-201.550596265
Feb-201.478607522
Mar-201.382617990
Apr-201.094599184
May-201.246591253
Jun-201.296593464
Jul-201.542614353
Aug-201.522638430
Sep-201.589657613
Oct-201.595677725
Nov-201.696697825
Dec-201.758719089
Jan-211.883734961
Feb-211.726738572
Mar-211.755757841
Apr-211.765770734
May-211.691788401
Jun-211.661799279
Jul-211.655806484
Aug-211.772811497
Sep-211.615814272
Oct-211.698816908
Nov-211.729824006
Dec-211.896842949
Jan-221.841881907
Feb-221.857903400
Mar-221.879920041
Apr-221.823931545
May-221.695945199
Jun-221.696937710
Jul-221.685927517
Aug-221.542895698
Sep-221.564879682
Oct-221.512872444
Nov-221.351868039

Higher interest rates and fears of recession underpin downward pressure on construction.

Private residential output down -0.5% m-o-m (5.3% y-o-y) in November; building permits down -10.6% m-o-m (-21.9% y-o-y) and to the lowest level since June 2020.

Private non-residential output up 1.7% m-o-m (12.6% y-o-y). Architecture Billings Index (ABI) down to 46.6 in November from 47.7 in October (<50, contraction).

China

X ValuesFloor space started
Jan-1917.91
Feb-1913.08
Mar-1910.69
Apr-1913.08
May-1911.15
Jun-199.12
Jul-196.61
Aug-196.95
Sep-196.05
Oct-1911.01
Nov-198.02
Dec-198.26
Jan-20-6.58
Feb-20-17.65
Mar-20-30.64
Apr-20-18.42
May-20-8.57
Jun-203.82
Jul-207.59
Aug-207.70
Sep-203.91
Oct-201.28
Nov-201.84
Dec-204.71
Jan-2111.8
Feb-2124.9
Mar-218.3
Apr-21-5.0
May-21-19.9
Jun-21-6.1
Jul-21-10.0
Aug-21-13.1
Sep-21-17.4
Oct-21-21.3
Nov-21-22.6
Dec-21-28.6
Jan-22-24.1
Feb-22-23.1
Mar-22-17.5
Apr-22-28.9
May-22-36.0
Jun-22-43.8
Jul-22-44.1
Aug-22-45.3
Sep-22-45.1
Oct-22-42.1
Nov-22-43.8

Residential sector continues to remain under pressure with some respite expected in 2023.

The 3-month moving average y-o-y growth in floor space fell -44% in November; floor space sold down -24% y-o-y.

Europe

X ValuesPMI (LHS)Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-1950.60.38
Feb-1952.66.14
Mar-1952.26.32
Apr-1952.13.11
May-1950.62.34
Jun-1950.82.14
Jul-1950.61.86
Aug-1949.11.03
Sep-1950.50.28
Oct-1950.70.37
Nov-1950.61.11
Dec-1951.3-2.45
Jan-2051.94.32
Feb-2052.5-0.18
Mar-2033.5-15.57
Apr-2015.1-29.59
May-2039.5-9.23
Jun-2048.3-4.55
Jul-2048.9-3.0
Aug-2047.8.74
Sep-2047.5-2.84
Oct-2044.9-1.94
Nov-2045.6-1.28
Dec-2045.5-0.1
Jan-2144.1-3.5
Feb-2145.0-5.1
Mar-2150.117.8
Apr-2150.142.2
May-2150.34.1
Jun-2150.34.1
Jul-2149.82.9
Aug-2149.5-1.3
Sep-21502.6
Oct-2151.22.8
Nov-2153.30.7
Dec-2152.90.9
Jan-2256.63.6
Feb-2256.37.5
Mar-2252.82.4
Apr-2250.41.8
May-2249.22.0
Jun-22471.2
Jul-22471.2
Aug-2245.72.1
Sep-2244.21.9
Oct-2245.31.2
Nov-2243.6
Dec-2242.6

Eurozone construction holds up due to government support schemes but activity to slow.

Eurozone construction up 1.3% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y) in October; Buildings up 1.3% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y); Civil works up 1% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y).

The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI declined to 42.6 in December 2022 from 43.6 in November (< 50, contraction).

India

X ValuesAvg industrial production (y-o-y)
Jan-191.44
Feb-191.79
Mar-194.98
Apr-194.30
May-192.91
Jun-190.18
Jul-192.00
Aug-19-0.71
Sep-19-5.72
Oct-19-5.41
Nov-190.25
Dec-192.15
Jan-201.36
Feb-205.10
Mar-20-8.96
Apr-20-44.41
May-20-21.15
Jun-20-12.09
Jul-20-7.95
Aug-20-7.48
Sep-20-0.34
Oct-20-1.79
Nov-20-1.71
Dec-20-0.29
Jan-210.67
Feb-21-3.65
Mar-2112.60
Apr-2162.60
May-2116.40
Jun-219.40
Jul-219.90
Aug-2112.20
Sep-215.40
Oct-218.70
Nov-213.20
Dec-214.10
Jan-224.00
Feb-225.90
Mar-224.80
Apr-229.50
May-2219.30
Jun-2213.10
Jul-224.80
Aug-224.20
Sep-227.80
Oct-220.90
Nov-225.40

Core sector output improved in November but pickup is not broad based.

Weighted average of eight core industries output up 5.4% y-o-y in November; production of steel up 10.8%, cement up 28.6% y-o-y.


 

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