Construction market trends

United States

X Values Permits (LHS, SAAR Millions) Output (RHS, SAAR USD billions)
Jan-19 1.295 515899
Feb-19 1.304 516346
Mar-19 1.316 517654
Apr-19 1.337 523932
May-19 1.338 531954
Jun-19 1.276 542612
Jul-19 1.369 554234
Aug-19 1.479 558908
Sep-19 1.439 561924
Oct-19 1.509 564734
Nov-19 1.509 577566
Dec-19 1.453 583160
Jan-20 1.550 596265
Feb-20 1.478 607522
Mar-20 1.382 617990
Apr-20 1.094 599184
May-20 1.246 591253
Jun-20 1.296 593464
Jul-20 1.542 614353
Aug-20 1.522 638430
Sep-20 1.589 657613
Oct-20 1.595 677725
Nov-20 1.696 697825
Dec-20 1.758 719089
Jan-21 1.883 734961
Feb-21 1.726 738572
Mar-21 1.755 757841
Apr-21 1.765 770734
May-21 1.691 788401
Jun-21 1.661 799279
Jul-21 1.655 806484
Aug-21 1.772 811497
Sep-21 1.615 814272
Oct-21 1.698 816908
Nov-21 1.729 824006
Dec-21 1.896 842949
Jan-22 1.841 881907
Feb-22 1.857 903400
Mar-22 1.879 920041
Apr-22 1.823 931545
May-22 1.695 945199
Jun-22 1.696 937710
Jul-22 1.685 927517
Aug-22 1.542 895698
Sep-22 1.564 879682
Oct-22 1.512 872444
Nov-22 1.351 868039

Higher interest rates and fears of recession underpin downward pressure on construction.

Private residential output down -0.5% m-o-m (5.3% y-o-y) in November; building permits down -10.6% m-o-m (-21.9% y-o-y) and to the lowest level since June 2020.

Private non-residential output up 1.7% m-o-m (12.6% y-o-y). Architecture Billings Index (ABI) down to 46.6 in November from 47.7 in October (<50, contraction).

China

X Values Floor space started
Jan-19 17.91
Feb-19 13.08
Mar-19 10.69
Apr-19 13.08
May-19 11.15
Jun-19 9.12
Jul-19 6.61
Aug-19 6.95
Sep-19 6.05
Oct-19 11.01
Nov-19 8.02
Dec-19 8.26
Jan-20 -6.58
Feb-20 -17.65
Mar-20 -30.64
Apr-20 -18.42
May-20 -8.57
Jun-20 3.82
Jul-20 7.59
Aug-20 7.70
Sep-20 3.91
Oct-20 1.28
Nov-20 1.84
Dec-20 4.71
Jan-21 11.8
Feb-21 24.9
Mar-21 8.3
Apr-21 -5.0
May-21 -19.9
Jun-21 -6.1
Jul-21 -10.0
Aug-21 -13.1
Sep-21 -17.4
Oct-21 -21.3
Nov-21 -22.6
Dec-21 -28.6
Jan-22 -24.1
Feb-22 -23.1
Mar-22 -17.5
Apr-22 -28.9
May-22 -36.0
Jun-22 -43.8
Jul-22 -44.1
Aug-22 -45.3
Sep-22 -45.1
Oct-22 -42.1
Nov-22 -43.8

Residential sector continues to remain under pressure with some respite expected in 2023.

The 3-month moving average y-o-y growth in floor space fell -44% in November; floor space sold down -24% y-o-y.

Europe

X Values PMI (LHS) Output (RHS, %, y-o-y)
Jan-19 50.6 0.38
Feb-19 52.6 6.14
Mar-19 52.2 6.32
Apr-19 52.1 3.11
May-19 50.6 2.34
Jun-19 50.8 2.14
Jul-19 50.6 1.86
Aug-19 49.1 1.03
Sep-19 50.5 0.28
Oct-19 50.7 0.37
Nov-19 50.6 1.11
Dec-19 51.3 -2.45
Jan-20 51.9 4.32
Feb-20 52.5 -0.18
Mar-20 33.5 -15.57
Apr-20 15.1 -29.59
May-20 39.5 -9.23
Jun-20 48.3 -4.55
Jul-20 48.9 -3.0
Aug-20 47.8 .74
Sep-20 47.5 -2.84
Oct-20 44.9 -1.94
Nov-20 45.6 -1.28
Dec-20 45.5 -0.1
Jan-21 44.1 -3.5
Feb-21 45.0 -5.1
Mar-21 50.1 17.8
Apr-21 50.1 42.2
May-21 50.3 4.1
Jun-21 50.3 4.1
Jul-21 49.8 2.9
Aug-21 49.5 -1.3
Sep-21 50 2.6
Oct-21 51.2 2.8
Nov-21 53.3 0.7
Dec-21 52.9 0.9
Jan-22 56.6 3.6
Feb-22 56.3 7.5
Mar-22 52.8 2.4
Apr-22 50.4 1.8
May-22 49.2 2.0
Jun-22 47 1.2
Jul-22 47 1.2
Aug-22 45.7 2.1
Sep-22 44.2 1.9
Oct-22 45.3 1.2
Nov-22 43.6
Dec-22 42.6

Eurozone construction holds up due to government support schemes but activity to slow.

Eurozone construction up 1.3% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y) in October; Buildings up 1.3% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y); Civil works up 1% m-o-m (2.4% y-o-y).

The IHS Markit Eurozone Construction PMI declined to 42.6 in December 2022 from 43.6 in November (< 50, contraction).

India

X Values Avg industrial production (y-o-y)
Jan-19 1.44
Feb-19 1.79
Mar-19 4.98
Apr-19 4.30
May-19 2.91
Jun-19 0.18
Jul-19 2.00
Aug-19 -0.71
Sep-19 -5.72
Oct-19 -5.41
Nov-19 0.25
Dec-19 2.15
Jan-20 1.36
Feb-20 5.10
Mar-20 -8.96
Apr-20 -44.41
May-20 -21.15
Jun-20 -12.09
Jul-20 -7.95
Aug-20 -7.48
Sep-20 -0.34
Oct-20 -1.79
Nov-20 -1.71
Dec-20 -0.29
Jan-21 0.67
Feb-21 -3.65
Mar-21 12.60
Apr-21 62.60
May-21 16.40
Jun-21 9.40
Jul-21 9.90
Aug-21 12.20
Sep-21 5.40
Oct-21 8.70
Nov-21 3.20
Dec-21 4.10
Jan-22 4.00
Feb-22 5.90
Mar-22 4.80
Apr-22 9.50
May-22 19.30
Jun-22 13.10
Jul-22 4.80
Aug-22 4.20
Sep-22 7.80
Oct-22 0.90
Nov-22 5.40

Core sector output improved in November but pickup is not broad based.

Weighted average of eight core industries output up 5.4% y-o-y in November; production of steel up 10.8%, cement up 28.6% y-o-y.


 

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